Simulated Test Marketing

The Forecasted Trial Rate

(Measured on Year-1 household Penetration)

The percent of shoppers buying the test product in each awareness track is weighted according to marketing plan spending plans to yield a net trial rate.  So, a marketing plan with low spending levels will weigh the ad track buying % down. The shelf-only exposure track will receive a higher weight, increasing its influence on the net trial rate.  The weighted measure is then inserted as an essential part of the year-1 sales forecast.